博雅計(jì)劃—博雅計(jì)劃：大氣科學(xué)專題：拉尼娜與厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象動(dòng)態(tài)分析 基于氣候模擬方法的氣象變化與災(zāi)害預(yù)測(cè)研究

開始日期：

2023年6月24日

專業(yè)方向：

理工

導(dǎo)師：

David（紐約大學(xué) New York University (NYU) 終身正教授&首席研究員）

課程周期：

7周在線小組科研+5周論文指導(dǎo)

語言：

英文

建議學(xué)生年級(jí)：

大學(xué)生

項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)出：

7周在線小組科研學(xué)習(xí)+5周論文指導(dǎo)學(xué)習(xí) 學(xué)術(shù)報(bào)告 EI/CPCI/Scopus/ProQuest/Crossref/EBSCO或同等級(jí)別索引國(guó)際會(huì)議全文投遞與發(fā)表指導(dǎo)（共同一作） 結(jié)業(yè)證書 成績(jī)單

項(xiàng)目介紹：

項(xiàng)目中導(dǎo)師將首先介紹地球物理、化學(xué)及生物基本定律及其構(gòu)成的復(fù)雜氣候模型，而后我們將離散化過往大氣數(shù)據(jù)，利用現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)（CMIP Phase5 and 6）構(gòu)建氣候模型。過程中，導(dǎo)師將教授氣候模擬的概念和用于探測(cè)和確定氣候變化屬性的統(tǒng)計(jì)方法。學(xué)生們將利用Python與氣候模型，針對(duì)未來宏觀氣象趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)（如全球變暖），并針對(duì)某一具體地區(qū)做出是否會(huì)出現(xiàn)極端降水、洪水或野火等極端天氣或自然災(zāi)害的概率預(yù)測(cè)，在項(xiàng)目結(jié)束時(shí)，提交項(xiàng)目報(bào)告，進(jìn)行成果展示。 Our ability to identify potential risks in climate change relies on the use of climate models. These models are a very complex representation of our best understanding of the Earth physics, chemistry and biology. They rely on fundamental laws, discretized to enable computational simulations over centuries. The goal of this workshop is to make use of the existing model data archives from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP, Phases 5 and 6). This project aims to provide the climate community with an ensemble of simulations from which analysis of past and future trends can be performed. This workshop would introduce the students to the concept of climate modeling and the statistical approaches that are used to detect and attribute climate change. Students will tackle research questions associated with identifying simulated trends in relevant quantities such as precipitation extremes, flooding or wildfires. The complexity of the final projects will be commensurate with the expertise level of the students with respect to analysis packages such as Python.